I consider myself to be experienced and well versed in the ways that Vegas makes their lines. I will not claim to be an expert in this field, as other have done considerably more research. Vegas needs to set their lines so they receive equal amounts of action on both sides. Two factors come in to play here. The first is public perception and the second is cold hard data. The Super Bowl line is the most notable game in which public perception weighs heavier on the line as opposed to cold hard data. BUT….
In a mid-season NBA match up, the cold hard data outweighs public perception when it comes to factoring into Vegas’ line. This proves very beneficial to us. We will allow Vegas to guide us in the right direction for the night. Allowing Vegas to do the hard work will give us a projected score for each game. No matter what projection model you use, you will rarely arrive at a score that is significantly different than the line Vegas provides (free of charge). DFS is built around scoring…lots of scoring. If 2 players are projected similarly for the night, I will always suggest to go with the player whose team is projected to score more points, using the Vegas’ line
Picking players with an eye on their projected points is a great way to maneuver your way through a long NBA season.